Ukwehla kokukhula komnotho waseShayina kanye nokuguqulwa kwesakhiwo sayo somnotho nakho kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu ekuthuthukisweni komshwalense wempahla emhlabeni jikelele.Ukwehla komthamo wokungenisa nokuthekelisa kweShayina sekube esinye sezizathu eziyinhloko zokwehla komthamo wokuhwebelana emhlabeni jikelele.Indlela yaseChina yokuthembela kuphela ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe ukuze iqhube umnotho iyashintsha.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukwehla kokukhula komnotho kusithinte kakhulu isidingo sempahla eminingi.Amanani ezinto ezinkulu ezinjengamandla, amaminerali, nezilimo zehle ngamazinga ahlukahlukene.Ukwehla kwamanani entengo kungenye yezinto eziyinhloko ezibangela ukwehla kweholo lomshwalense wempahla emhlabeni wonke.

Kuthiwani ngokuhlaziywa kanye nokuthambekela kwemboni yohwebo lwangaphandle 2021 isimo sokuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yemboni yezohwebo kanye nokuhlaziywa kwethemba

Ngonyaka wezi-2017, umnotho womhlaba wasimama ngokusesilinganisweni, futhi umnotho wasekhaya wawuzinzile futhi uthuthuka, okwakhuthaza ukukhula okuqhubekayo kohwebo lwangaphandle lwezwe lami nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe unyaka wonke.Ngokwezibalo zamasiko, ngo-2017, inani eliphelele lohwebo lwezwe lami lokungenisa nokuthekelisa lalingama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-27.79, okuwukunyuka ngo-14.2% ngonyaka wezi-2016, okubuyisela emuva iminyaka emibili elandelanayo yokwehla.Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kube ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-15.33, okukhuphuke ngo-10.8%;ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe kube ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-12.46, okukhuphuke ngo-18.7%;imali enqwabelene yohwebo yayingama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.87, ukwehla ngo-14.2%.Izimo ezithile zihlanganisa izici ezilandelayo:

1. Inani lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lenyuka ngekota ngekota, futhi izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lehla.Ngo-2017, inani lezwe lami lokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle lenyuke ngekota ngekota, lafinyelela ku-6.17 trillion yuan, 6.91 trillion yuan, 7.17 trillion yuan kanye 7.54 trillion yuan, lenyuka ngo-21.3%, 17.2%, 11.9% kanye 8.6% ngokulandelana.

2. Ukungenisa nokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe kubalingani abathathu abaphezulu abahwebayo kukhule ngendlela efanayo, futhi ukukhula kokungenisa nokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe eduze kwe-“Belt and Road” kuhle uma kuqhathaniswa.Ngo-2017, ukungenisa nokuthunyelwa kwezwe lami e-EU, e-United States nase-ASEAN kukhuphuke ngo-15.5%, u-15.2% no-16.6% ngokulandelana, kanti lezi zintathu zihlangene zibalele u-41.8% wesamba esiphelele sezwe lami nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthengwa kwezwe lami kanye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla eRussia, ePoland naseKazakhstan kukhuphuke ngo-23.9%, 23.4% no-40.7% ngokulandelana, konke kuphezulu kunezinga lokukhula lilonke.

3. Ukungeniswa nokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe kwamabhizinisi azimele kwanda, futhi ingxenye yanda.Ngo-2017, amabhizinisi azimele ezwe lami angenisa futhi athumela kwamanye amazwe ama-yuan angama-trillion ayi-10.7, okukhuphuke ngo-15.3%, okubalelwa ku-38.5% yenani eliphelele lokungenisa nokuthekelisa kwezwe lami, okukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.4 ngonyaka wezi-2016. Phakathi kwawo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe bekungamathriliyoni ayi-7.13 i-yuan, inyuke ngo-12.3%, ibalwa ngama-46.5% yenani eliphelele lokuthekelisa, futhi iqhubekile nokugcina isikhundla esiphezulu esabeloni sokuthumela ngaphandle, okunyuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.6;ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe bekungama-3.57 trillion yuan, okukhuphuke ngo-22%.

Ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala zowezi-2017, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwemikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi kube ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisi-6.41, okukhuphuke ngo-13%, ngamaphesenti angu-0.6 ngaphezu kwezinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, okubalelwa ku-57.5% yenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe.Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto, imikhumbi nomakhalekhukhwini kwamanye amazwe kunyuke ngo-28.5%, 12.2% no-10.8% ngokulandelana.Ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu bekungu-3.15 trillion yuan, nokunyuka ngo-13.7%.I-China ikhulise ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe futhi yathuthukisa isakhiwo sayo sokungenisa kwamanye amazwe.Ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwemikhiqizo yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu njengobuchwepheshe obuphambili, izingxenye ezibalulekile nemishini ebalulekile kukhule ngokushesha.

Ezigabeni ezintathu zokuqala, izigaba eziyisikhombisa zemikhiqizo yaseShayina edinga abasebenzi abaningi zathumela kwamanye amazwe isamba esingamathriliyoni angama-2.31, okuwukunyuka ngo-9.4%, okubalelwa ku-20.7% yenani eliphelele lokuthumela ngaphandle.Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwamathoyizi, imikhiqizo yepulasitiki, izikhwama neziqukathi ezifanayo kukhuphuke ngo-49.2%, 15.2% no-14.7% ngokulandelana.

Ngo-2019, ukuthengwa kwezwe lami kwamanye amazwe nokuthekelisa kwafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu elisha.Eminyakeni yakamuva, uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo ezivumayo lukhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yezohwebo lwangaphandle yezwe lami.Kubikwa ukuthi namhlanje ekuseni, iHhovisi Lolwazi LoMkhandlu Wombuso libambe isithangami sabezindaba, kanti i-General Administration of Customs yamemezela ukuthi u-2019 wezwe lami ungenisa kanye nokuthekelisa okuhlobene nokuthekelisa okuhlobene nokuthekelisa.Ngonyaka wezi-2019, ngenxa yokwanda kwezingozi zezomnotho nezohwebo kanye nokungaqiniseki, izwe lami liqhubekile nokuthuthukisa uhlaka lwalo lohwebo lwangaphandle kanye nemvelo yebhizinisi, amabhizinisi asungula futhi asebenzisa izimakethe ezingase zibe khona ezihlukene, futhi ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe kwaqhubeka nokugcina izinga lokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo. .

Kubikwa ukuthi ngo-2019, inani eliphelele lokungeniswa kanye nokuthekelisa kwezwe lami kwamanye amazwe lalingama-31.54 trillion yuan, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-3.4%, okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kube ngama-yuan angama-trillion ayi-17.23, okukhuphuke ngo-5%, ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe 14.31 trillion yuan, inyuke ngo-1.6%, kanye nensalela yokuhweba ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.92.Kunwetshwe ngo-25.4%.Ukungenisa nokuthekelisa, ukuthekelisa kanye nokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe unyaka wonke kushaye amarekhodi aphezulu.

Kunezizathu ezintathu ezibalulekile zokukhula okuqhubekayo kohwebo lwangaphandle lwezwe lami nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.Okokuqala, umnotho wezwe lami usawugcinile umkhuba oyisisekelo wokuzinza kanye nokwenza ngcono okuhle kwesikhathi eside;okwesibili, umnotho wezwe lami unokusimama okuqinile, amandla kanye nendawo yokuwenza.Isibonelo, izwe lami linezinhlobo ezingaphezu kuka-220 zemikhiqizo yezimboni, umkhiqizo uhamba phambili emhlabeni, futhi izimboni zasekhaya zihlinzeka ngokusekela okuqinile ekuthuthukisweni kohwebo lwangaphandle.Okwesithathu, umphumela wenqubomgomo yokusimamisa uhwebo lwangaphandle uqhubekile nokukhululwa.Isizathu esiyinhloko ukuthi uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo nezinyathelo zokuzinzisa uhwebo lwangaphandle, njengokuqondisa ukuphatha kanye namandla okudlulisela amandla, ukunciphisa izintela nezimali ezikhokhwayo, kanye nokuqhubeka nokwenza ngcono isimo sechweba, kukhulise kakhulu ukuzethemba kwemakethe namabhizinisi.

Ngo-2019, ukuthuthukiswa kohwebo lwangaphandle kwezwe lami kubonise izici eziyisithupha: okokuqala, izinga lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe landa ngekota ngekota;okwesibili, izinga labalingani abakhulu bokuhweba lashintsha, futhi i-ASEAN yaba umlingani wezwe wami wesibili ngobukhulu kwezohwebo;okwesithathu, amabhizinisi azimele adlula amabhizinisi atshalwe kwamanye amazwe okokuqala ngqa futhi aba inkampane enkulu yezwe lami yokuhwebelana namanye amazwe;okwesine, ukwakheka kwezindlela zokuhwebelana buye kwathuthukiswa, futhi ingxenye yohwebo oluvamile oluvela kwamanye amazwe kanye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe iye yanda;okwesihlanu, izimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ikakhulukazi ziyimikhiqizo yemishini nedinga abasebenzi abaningi, kanti ingxenye yemikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi isondele ku-60%;okwesithupha insimbi yensimbi Ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwezimpahla ezifana nesihlabathi, uwoyela ongahluziwe, igesi yemvelo, nobhontshisi wesoya kwanda.

Izinga lokukhula komnotho kanye nezohwebo emhlabeni wonke lehle kakhulu, futhi umqedazwe omusha usuhlasele imboni yezokukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke.Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2019 kuya ekuqaleni kuka-2020, umnotho womhlaba wake wazinza futhi waphinde waqina, kodwa ukuthuthuka kobhubhane olusha lwenyumoniya kubangele umthelela omkhulu emnothweni wezwe kanye nezohwebo.I-IMF ibikezela ukuthi umnotho womhlaba uzokwehla ngo-2020, futhi ukwehla komnotho kuzoba kukhulu okungenani njengenhlekelele yezimali yango-2008.sina nakakhulu.I-World Trade Organisation's Quarterly Global Trade Outlook Index yekota yokuqala ifike ku-95.5, yehle isuka kuma-96.6 ngoNovemba 2019. Umthelela walolu bhubhane emnothweni womhlaba uyavela, futhi cishe awekho neyodwa iminotho emikhulu emhlabeni kanye namazwe amakhulu ahwebayo asenayo. usindisiwe.

Ukuhamba kwezimoto olwandle emhlabeni wonke kwehle ngo-25% engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020 futhi kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ngo-10% unyaka wonke.Ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala zonyaka ka-2020, izinga lokukhula kwamakhonteyina amachweba amakhulu omhlaba lisesebangeni lokukhula elibi, kuyilapho ukuphuma kwesitsha seNingbo Zhoushan Port, Guangzhou Port, Qingdao Port kanye neTianjin Port eChina kugcine izitayela ezinhle zokukhula ezishintshashintshayo. amadigri, akhombisa imakethe yasekhaya.ukululama okungcono.

Uma sibheka ukuguquka kwesimo sohwebo lwangaphakathi kanye nohwebo lwangaphandle lwamachweba angaphakathi ngaphezu kobukhulu obunqunyiwe ngo-2020, imakethe yohwebo yasekhaya yamachweba yathinteka kakhulu kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNdasa, ngokwehla okuncane ngamaphuzu angaphezu kwamaphesenti ayi-10, kodwa kancane kancane yasimama. U-April, ikakhulukazi owasekhaya Ngokwemakethe yohwebo lwangaphandle echwebeni, ngaphandle kokwehla kancane esikalini sokukhiqiza ngoMashi, okunye kwahlala kusezingeni elingaphezu kwenkathi efanayo ngo-2019, okubonisa ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yokuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe yaseChina uzinze kakhulu, ikakhulukazi Kungenxa yokuthi ubhubhane lwangaphandle aluzange lulawuleke ngempumelelo isikhathi eside, ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni kucindezelwe, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo semakethe yangaphandle kuye kwanda kancane kancane, ngaleyo ndlela kukhuthazwa ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe ye-export yaseChina.

Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kohwebo lwangaphandle, iShayina ibe yizwe elikhulu kunawo wonke mayelana nokuphuma kwamachweba.Ngo-2020, ukuqubuka kobhubhane olusha lwe-crown pneumonia kuye kwamisa ukukhiqizwa, inani lokuhweba lamazwe ahlukahlukene lehlile, futhi nokuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yemikhumbi kuthinteke kakhulu.Ubhadane lwasekhaya selulawuleke ngokuphumelelayo esikhathini esifushane uma kuqhathaniswa, umnotho uye wasimama kancane kancane, ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni kuye kwasimama ngokushesha, imikhiqizo yasekhaya ihlinzekwa ezimakethe zomhlaba, futhi isidingo sokuhwebelana ngaphandle senyukile.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2020, ukuthuthwa kwempahla emachwebeni angaphezu kobukhulu obunqunyiwe ezweni lami kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-13.25, okuwukunyuka ngo-4.18% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2019.

Bethintwe ubhubhane olusha lwenyumoniya, uhwebo lwempahla yomhlaba wonke luzokwehla ngo-9.2% ngo-2020, futhi izinga lohwebo lomhlaba wonke lizoba phansi kakhulu kunangaphambi kobhubhane olusha lwenyumoniya.Ngokumelene nesizinda sokuntenga kohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ukukhula kweShayina kwamanye amazwe kudlule kude obekulindelekile.NgoNovemba 2020, ayizange irekhode kuphela ukukhula okuhle kwezinyanga ezingu-8 zilandelana, kodwa futhi yabonisa ukuqina okuqinile, futhi izinga lokukhula lifinyelele izinga eliphakeme kakhulu lonyaka ku-14.9%.Kodwa-ke, ngokwezinto ezithengwayo ezivela kwamanye amazwe, ngemva kokuba inani lanyanga zonke lokungenisa elizweni lifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu lama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.4 ngoSepthemba, izinga lokukhula kwenani lokungenisa libuyele ebangeni lokukhula elibi ngoNovemba.

Kuyaqondakala ukuthi ngo-2020, ukuhweba kwezwe lami kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokugcina umkhuba wokukhula okuqhubekayo, futhi intuthuko yekhwalithi ephezulu izofinyelela ezingeni elisha.Ukusimama komnotho womhlaba kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubekise ukukhula kwezohwebo, futhi ukusimama kancane komnotho wakuleli nakho kunikeza ukwesekwa okuqinile ekuthuthukisweni kohwebo lwangaphandle.Kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, kufanele futhi sibone ukuthi kuningi ukungaqiniseki ekushintsheni kwesimo sobhubhane kanye nemvelo yangaphandle, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kohwebo lwangaphandle kwezwe lami kusabhekene nobunzima nezinselele..Kukholakala ukuthi ngokwakhiwa okusheshayo kwephethini entsha yentuthuko nomjikelezo wasekhaya njengomzimba oyinhloko kanye nokukhuthazwa okufanayo kwemijikelezo emibili yasekhaya neyamazwe ngamazwe, ukuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kokuvulwa kwezinga eliphezulu emhlabeni wangaphandle, kanye nokwakheka okuqhubekayo ukubambisana okusha kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nezinzuzo ezintsha ezincintisanayo, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe kwezwe lami kanye nezinga lokuthekelisa kulindeleke ukuthi liqhubeke likhona ngo-2021. Ukuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu yohwebo lwangaphandle kulindeleke ukuthi kuzuze imiphumela emisha.