Njengamanje, isimo sobhadane emhlabeni sisanzima, sihambisana nezici ezifana noxhaxha lwempahla eqinile kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo yokudla namandla, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lilonke emazweni amaningi athuthukile likhuphuke lafinyelela ezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu eminyakeni eyishumi.Idlanzana lochwepheshe abagunyaziwe likholelwa ukuthi umnotho womhlaba usungene “enkathini yezindleko eziphakeme” futhi ubonisa isimo “esiphezulu esiyisithupha”.
Ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokuvikela impilo.U-Tang Jianwei, umcwaningi omkhulu we-Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, ukholelwa ukuthi ngokombono wesikhashana, lolu bhubhane luholele ekwehleni kokukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo eyisisekelo, ukuvinjelwa kokusebenza kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nohwebo, ukushoda kokuhlinzekwa kwezimboni. imikhiqizo kanye nezindleko ezikhulayo.Ngisho noma isimo siba ngcono kancane kancane, ukuvinjelwa nokulawulwa kwezifo eziwumshayabhuqe kanye nokusabalala kwezifo eziwumshayabhuqe kusazoba yinsakavukela.U-Liu Yuanchun, iphini likamongameli we-Renmin University of China, uthe ukujwayezwa kokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane kuzonyusa izindleko zethu zokuvikela kanye nezindleko zezempilo.Lezi zindleko zifana ncamashi nokuhlasela kwamaphekula “9.11″ okuholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwezindleko zokuphepha zomhlaba wonke.
Izindleko zabasebenzi ziyakhuphuka.Ngokombiko wocwaningo okhishwe yiChina Macroeconomic Forum ngoMashi 26, ngemuva kokuqubuka kwalolu bhubhane ngo-2020, imakethe yezabasebenzi emhlabeni wonke ibe nezinguquko ezinkulu, ikakhulukazi emazweni athuthukile, futhi kuye kwaba nokwanda kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi.Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwalolu bhubhane kanye nezinguquko kuzinqubomgomo zikazwelonke zokuvimbela ubhubhane, izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi lehlile.Nokho, kule nqubo, ukwehla kwezinga lokubamba iqhaza kwabasebenzi kuye kwadala ukushoda kwabasebenzi ngamazinga ahlukene ezimbonini ezihlukahlukene, okuhambisana nokukhuphuka kwamaholo.E-US, ngokwesibonelo, amaholo abizwa ngehora akhuphuke ngo-6% ngo-Ephreli 2020, uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso samaholo ngo-2019, futhi anyuke ngo-10.7% kusukela ngoJanuwari 2022.
Izindleko zokuchithwa kwembulunga yonke zinyukile.U-Liu Yuanchun uthe kusukela ekuhwebeni kwe-Sino-US, wonke amazwe abonise ukuhlukaniswa okujwayelekile kwesistimu yezabasebenzi, okungukuthi, ukwakhiwa kwe-supply chain kanye ne-value chain ngokuhlukaniswa okuqondile kwezabasebenzi njengomzimba omkhulu esikhathini esidlule, futhi umhlaba kufanele unake kakhulu ukuphepha kunokusebenza kahle okumsulwa.Ngakho-ke, wonke amazwe azakhela awawo amalophu angaphakathi futhi enza izinhlelo “zesondo eliyisipele” zobuchwepheshe obubalulekile nobuchwepheshe obuyisisekelo, okuholela ekwehleni kokusebenza kahle kokwabiwa kwezinsiza zomhlaba kanye nokwenyuka kwezindleko.Ochwepheshe abanjengoZhang Jun, iChief Economist of Morgan Stanley Securities, Wang Jun, Chief Economist of Zhongyuan Bank, bakholelwa ukuthi noma ngabe izinga eliphezulu lokufa elibangelwa ukushoda komhlaba wonke komamaski nama-ventilators ekuqaleni kwalolu bhubhane, noma ukukhiqizwa komakhalekhukhwini nezimoto okubangelwe ukushoda kwama-chips kamuva Ukwehla noma ukumiswa kokukhiqiza kuye kwadalula ubuthakathaka balokhu kuhlukaniswa kwezabasebenzi emhlabeni wonke okusekelwe kumgomo wePareto optimality, futhi amazwe awasakubheki ukulawulwa kwezindleko njengento ecatshangelwayo. ngesakhiwo se-global supply chain.

Izindleko zokushintsha okuluhlaza ziyakhuphuka.Ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi ngemva “kweSivumelwano SaseParis”, “i-carbon peak” kanye “ne-carbon neutral” izivumelwano ezihlosiwe ezisayinwe ngamazwe ahlukahlukene ziye zaletha umhlaba enkathini entsha yoguquko oluluhlaza.Ukushintshwa kwamandla okuluhlaza esikhathini esizayo kuzokhuphula intengo yamandla endabuko ngakolunye uhlangothi, futhi kwandise ukutshalwa kwezimali kumandla amasha aluhlaza ngakolunye uhlangothi, okuzokhuphula izindleko zamandla aluhlaza.Nakuba ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla amasha avuselelekayo kungasiza ekwehliseni ingcindezi yesikhathi eside emananini kagesi, isikali samandla avuselelekayo sinzima ukuhlangabezana nesidingo samandla esikhulayo emhlabeni jikelele esikhathini esifushane, futhi kusazoba nengcindezi ekhuphukayo yokuguquguquka kwentengo yamandla isikhathi esifushane nesimaphakathi.

Izindleko ze-geopolitical ziyakhuphuka.Ochwepheshe abanjengo-Liu Xiaochun, iPhini likaDean we-China Institute of Financial Research e-Shanghai Jiao Tong University, u-Zhang Liqun, umcwaningi eMnyangweni Wocwaningo Lwezomnotho Olukhulu weSikhungo Sokucwaninga Ngentuthuko soMkhandlu Wombuso kanye nabanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi okwamanje, ubungozi be-geopolitical ukwanda kancane kancane, okuthinte kakhulu isimo sezombangazwe nezomnotho emhlabeni wonke, kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwamandla kanye nempahla.Amaketanga aya eba ntekenteke, futhi izindleko zokuhamba zikhula ngendlela emangalisayo.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuwohloka kwezimo ze-geopolitical ezifana nokungqubuzana kwe-Russian-Ukraine kuye kwaholela ekutheni inani elikhulu lezinsiza zabantu nezinto ezibonakalayo zisetshenziselwe izimpi nezingxabano zezombusazwe esikhundleni semisebenzi yokukhiqiza.Lezi zindleko ngokungangabazeki zinkulu.